Let's Get High!

Yes, the typically weak balloon puns cannot be avoided especially as the Heritage Inn Hotel’s 2013 Canadian Hot Air Balloon Championships move to High River, AB next week.  It was a great relief to me and surely others closer to the event that it will go ahead after the terrible floods that have marked the summer of 2013 in Southern Alberta and in High River in particular.  But I’ll get back to that in a second.  First, let’s preview the contest!

Fifteen pilots have registered to compete in what is becoming a biannual event.  Aside from reigning champion Jason Adams, all others are from the West, meaning that the large balloon communities in Ontario and Quebec (even though they aren’t competitive) remain poorly represented.  Still, a good number of previous Canadian champions are in the field and the competition for Canada’s two spots at next year’s World Championships in Sao Carlo, Brazil will be intense.

I expect Adams to lead the pack as he did in Camrose in 2011.  Disappointed by his finish at last year’s Worlds in Michigan, he has worked tirelessly to sharpen his competition skills and has been throwing markers out across the Serengeti.   He won’t be alone at the top as I expect Dale Ritchie, David Gleed and Del Michaud will also have very competitive scores.  I’ve heard many people call Dale Ritchie Canada’s best ever flyer and his international experience somehow always have him hovering around the target.  Michaud and Gleed are also serious about competition and have honourably represented Canada on the international scene in the past.  Others, like Richard Clark, are just happy to see the target field. A new generation of pilots, featuring Cliff Skocdopole and Brant Leatherdale, means that the lessons Canada has been learning won’t be lost through time.

The event director is Gary Lockyer whose experience and preference for cutting-edge competition technology mean that competitors will be taking part in a truly world-class event.  Using SMS to transmit information to pilots should help lessen the learning curve for pilots who take part in international competitions.  This author will be reading the theodolite and is looking forward to the early wakeups.

An interesting part of Canada’s national championship – aside from the poor Eastern representation (it would be easier if it wasn’t so far!) – is that it is truly Canadian.  Whereas other national championships around the world occasionally feature pilots from other countries who want to practice, the Committee voted this year to only let Canadians in the competition department.  It appears as though a number of international pilots, from Europe in particular, would have been interested in participating.  Seeing as the timing of the event is favourable to pilots wanting to go to Albuquerque afterwards, letting them enter could be interesting in the future.

As mentioned, though, the real winners are the residents of High River.  Already, they should have their heads up high because of the courage and patience they have displayed since the floods.  For a few days in late September, they will be able to crane their necks even higher as they watch the colourful balloons above them and we get to admire the skill of many of Canada’s best pilots.  See you there! http://www.canadianhotairballoonchampionships.com/home-1.html

Big City Winners, Small Town Dreamers: City Size and Junior Hockey Success

Teams in big cities have had more success over the past 12 years than small town teams on the Canadian Hockey League (CHL) Major Junior circuit.  More important, though, is that teams that draw bigger crowds have a better chance of winning, regardless of the size of the city.  The same thing can be said, to a lesser extent, about teams that are able to fill a larger percentage of their buildings.

An in-depth look at the past 12 seasons of Major Junior hockey in all three CHL member league (QMJHL, OHL and WHL) confirmed my hypothesis without making me ring all the alarm bells up to Commissioner David Branch’s door.  Selling tickets and being an important focal point in the community is more important than being in a big city, a finding which is both expected and comforting.  Still, year-over-year success is more likely in a big city than a small town.

The following graphs display both the number of times a team has made the playoffs and their success based on a formula that attributes five points for a Memorial Cup win, four for a league championship and one for each playoff round won and for each time the team made the playoffs.  The average over 12 years is 21.2 points in the CHL for teams having played all 12 years in the same city.

“Big” Winners: The Past 12 Years
Times in playoffs	Size of City	Success
9.565217391	Small town (0 to 99,999)	18.75
9.157894737	Medium (100,000 to 399,999)	20.68421053
9.909090909	Big (above 400,000)	26.81818182

Over the past 12 years, big cities have fielded more successful major junior teams in the CHL than small towns as the above stats clearly indicate.  However, there is no clear advantage to being a big city in terms of making the playoffs.  In all three member leagues, most teams make the playoffs.  That means that the big city teams are more likely to go further in the playoffs, win a league championship and a Memorial Cup. 

The correlation of city size to success is not very high at 0.22 but it is quite simple to think of why it might be the case.  A team in a big city is likely to have a bigger rink, more fans and perhaps more revenue streams.  That likely means they can hire one extra scout, an additional trainer, keep a member of the coaching staff an extra year or two and perhaps most importantly, can offer a more substantial education package to one or two or three youngsters that might otherwise opt for the college route.

By no means does this data indicate that small town teams cannot have one or many championship runs and be successful year-over-year.  It simply illustrates that currently, they must really make a run if they are to reach the top echelons of junior hockey.  Bigger city teams have a greater capacity to be strong each year and make that extra push only when they feel all the pieces are there.  The lows are usually a little less low.

Same Story : 5 years
Times in playoffs	Size of city	Success
3.833333	Small town (0 to 99,999)	7.375
3.8	Medium (100,000 to 399,999)	8.6
4.076923	Big (above 400,000)	12.38462

The trend might actually be improving if only the past five years are to be taken into account.  While teams in big cities still have the advantage, it is not as important as it was over the long run and each time has made the playoffs an almost equal amount of times.

Bring People, Will Win
Times in playoffs	Attendance Average	Success
9.722222	Lots (Above 4007)	25.61111
9.423077	Many (2500-4006)	20.15385
9.428571	Few (below 2500)	15.14286
	Average:	4135.904
	Median:	3720.333

The highest correlation between dependent and independent variable is between success and the number of fans attending games at 0.507.  If you bring in more fans, regardless of the size of your city, you are likely to have a more successful.  Others might see the relation as opposite: you are likely to bring in more fans if you have a more successful team, though this is not always true.  Playoff attendance is not taken into account so it is really based on regular season performance leading to playoff success on the ice and a virtuous circle.

Fill ‘Er Up to Get the Cup
Times in playoffs		Success
9.789474	High (Above 80)	23.84211
9.466667	Medium (70 to 80)	19.33333
9.294118	Low (up to 69,9)	20.47059
	Average:	0.734891
	Median:	0.758132

Teams will smaller rinks might find some comfort in the fact that a full rink leads to a bit more playoff success than does an empty one though here the relation might actually be reversed.  In any case, the virtuous circle persists here.  Some teams clearly have rinks that are too small and others too large but those probably even out in the end.

A few more details on this study might be useful to include, such as the fact that I only found the Q’s attendance records for the past three years and that franchises that moved were not counted.  Still, I think it statistically confirms a lot of what observers of junior hockey already understand intuitively and might have noticed at this year’s Memorial Cup tournament where Saskatoon, Halifax, Portland and London participated.  They represent some of the bigger cities in junior hockey.

Naturally, this study brings up additional questions such as which of the three leagues is best and which is worse in this regard?  What can and/or should be done about this phenomenon?  What effect will the penalties on Portland and Windsor have on education packages and parity?  Finally, a more in-depth look into the causal links between attendance and success (which comes first) would answer some questions and might provide instruction for new team owners.

I would be happy to include more details on my methodology if there is an interest.  I can be reached at canadiense19@gmail.com.  Thank you to my dad Michel Perron for using his accounting skills and love of Excel spreadsheets in reviewing the data and suggesting fields of questioning.

Junior Hockey – Do Small Market Teams have a Real Chance?

As the Memorial Cup opens once more, a quick look at the qualifying teams gives me some concern.  All three league champions, the ‘QMJHL’s Halifax Mooseheads, Ontario’s London Knights and the Western League’s Portland Winterhawks, and numerous teams that were successful this year such as the Quebec Remparts, Edmonton Oil Kings and Calgary Hitmen represent big cities within junior hockey.  Should this be a concern and do small market teams even have a shot at junior success?  Over the next few weeks, I intend to find out.

This question has been bugging me for a while.  My hypothesis is that teams in bigger cities have more resources to devote to attracting players, offering better health and fitness services, ensuring easier travel and getting the best coaching staff.  Together, this makes it possible for them to reach the top of their leagues year after year creating a cycle that puts teams from smaller cities at a permanent disadvantage.  While it is not impossible for small market teams to have success and success is not guaranteed for big city teams, I think there is a relationship that goes beyond mere chance.  In order to test this hypothesis, I’ll have to dig deep and go back to my high school and university math to see if there is something to this.  As far as I know, teams don’t generally publish information like profit margins and revenues, so I’ll find to find information another way.

But how could that happen, that teams in smaller towns be at a disadvantage?  After all, they represent a majority of teams in the CHL.  It would be a concern to all three leagues if it is the case.  Each team, though, has access to the same players, the same drafts.  They play by the same rules in game and a lot has been done to punish teams like Portland and Windsor that have stepped outside the bounds to get players into their dressing rooms.  Yet, can more be done if there is indeed a problem?

To study this question, I will take a look at teams’ results over the past 10 years to look at trends and evaluate the correlation, if any, between city/region sizes, their support of junior hockey and results.  Success will be evaluated based on the number of Memorial Cups, league championships won and playoff rounds won as well as the number of times the team has made the playoffs.  To determine the size of regions and the support of teams, appropriate statistical information will be used when available.  It is unfair to assume that all teams in big cities have access to more resources because of a phenomenon common in junior hockey: when the team is not the highest level of hockey in town, it does not necessarily attract as much attention and support.  Junior hockey teams trying to establish themselves in the Toronto and Montreal regions have felt this consistently for many years and there was a time when Ottawa risked losing its junior team as well.

I hope to publish my research results and methodology near the end of this year’s Memorial Cup.  I’m not trying to shake up junior hockey but I would like to see a little bit more parity and some other teams get a real chance to go all the way.

4 Year Anniversary of Leaving Iceland

I was a little busy to be writing about my April 29 anniversary of leaving Iceland this year on the day on which it should be remarked.  Catie and I were driving from Thunder Bay to Winnipeg on our way, eventually, to our new home in Calgary.  I would never have predicted or likely agreed to such a change a few years ago, but if this annual report as shown anything, it’s that my life has become unpredictable year over year though the end goal never changes.

After assuming the role of Interim Manager of Programs and Outreach at the Forum for Young Canadians and seeing the ‘interim’ tag get dropped, I got hard to work on what I saw was the biggest task there: increasing the participation in the program.  Together, volunteers and I drove over 20000 km and met and called thousands of people to increase the number of participants by 16%.  That means 16% more young people who got to live the experience that clearly impacted me high school and beyond.

When I wasn’t busy with that, I became even more ambitious with my journalism getting involved with television covering the Ottawa Fat Cats and lots of hockey from atom to university level.  In April, I even helped out with the web broadcast of the Women’s World Hockey Championships!  Perhaps the most exciting for me was getting into radio.  I was on a local sports talk show during the summer and around Christmas joined in the coverage of Ottawa 67’s games interviewing future NHL stars and the coaching staff.  

While their on-ice season wasn’t great, I learned a lot and was happy for the opportunity.

Another exciting activity during the year was when I invited myself onto Canada’s national hot air balloon team.  When you are willing to do what it takes to help people, they will offer you the opportunity.  I was offered the role of theodolite operator – measuring the winds on the ground – and I was amazed at the level of competition over in Battle Creek, MI.  Thanks so much!

As the year passed, it became evident that Catie would not find a librarian job in Ottawa.  With deep cuts to libraries, there were simply too many people with over 15 years experience floating around for a new grad to get a job, great as she is.  When a metadata librarian position opened in Calgary, Catie immediately knew it was for her and six months later, she has just started her dream job.  At the time, I hesitatingly agreed to move with her if she found work, knowing what a difficult situation it was and that she wasn’t going to let go of her dream.

I’m here now, despite my initial anxiety, and excited for my own Albertan activities starting with being a windreader at this weekend’s Rimbey Hot Air Affair two hours north of town. 

On our drive out west, we stopped in at Joel Fridfinsson’s new house for a great welcome.  It felt like coming full circle as we celebrated four years since that time across the hallway from one another by sharing stories of the past.  Yet, we also created new memories with a trip around New Iceland and recollections of our meetings since 2009.  We hadn’t missed a beat.  That type of friendship will be counted on from my rocky mountain home.

Rangers at Christmas; High Note before the Break

The Gloucester Rangers are in year two of their rebuild after making their way to the CCHL semi-finals two years ago. This year, expectations were for better results than last year and by looking at the standings now, they certainly have been better with 11 wins already after only 13 last year. But the way this improvement has played out has certainly been a surprise.

The year started with a bang as Gloucester beat Smiths Falls at the Showcase – one of Smiths Falls’ few losses all year. The team looked poised to strike as Alexandre Boivin, the newly minted captain and Corey Durocher, back after a few years in the ‘O’, had great chemistry. Chad Millett laid a crushing hit and it seemed like the team was on track from the get-go.

And over the next few weeks, the team put on strong performances over a long homestand and was comfortably seated in the 8th playoff seat. They improved the team with a trade with Kemptville where they picked up Matt Rosebrook and Stevie Ray Adams. There were essentially four point-per-game players at that point. Durocher’s brief tryout with Peoria of the AHL gave other players the chance to step up such as Patrick White.

The Rangers cast of young players, stepping into the places of Michael McMurtry and Mathieu White, really showed why the team had faith in them. Pat White, a protect from the year before, has been fantastic deserving all the praise he can get and winning a rookie of the month honour to date. Colton Keuhl, drafted a year before he was eligible to play, has been a rock on defense standing beside Daniel Baslyk and forms half of a solid shutdown duo.

In nets, Gunner Rivers certainly expected to get the bulk of the work, but the solid play of Guanmarco DeMeis and later Dylan Brind’Amour meant that he wasn’t able to get as many minutes as he likely wanted. Still, he very rightly was named to the Central Canada Cup Prospects Game.

After the impressive homestand, the Rangers started to slip. Andrew Rossy, powerplay wizard for the Rangers, was injured for an extensive period of time. Millett was also injured. Corey Durocher wasn’t playing up to his potential though that has certainly changed as of late. But a few shake ups happened as well.

Alexandre Boivin, after being named to the Central Canada Cup roster for the Yzerman Division, headed to the Quebec Remparts after being courted for a month. In his place, Matt Rosebrook was a very appropriate choice as his replacement for the all-star festivities.

A new crop of players have risen to the occasion and are providing leadership for the Rangers, helping them win both games during the Holiday Showcase: Melanson, Topf, Ouimet and Giberson.

Winning brings stability. Though the Rangers remain outside of the playoffs for now, they have been doing the right things as of late. Their work ethic means that they should be able to build on the Showcase performances and make some noise in the second half to return to the success they had earlier this year.

Grads at Christmas : Putting the Pieces Together

The 2012-2013 CCHL season hasn’t gone as expected for the Cumberland Grads who sit at the bottom of the Yzerman division with 25 points. The Christmas break gives time to review the season so far and determine where they should go during the second half of the season.


The end of last season saw many players finish their Junior A careers for the usual reasons such as age (Bamford, Wild), college (Lough) and the OHL (Beckstead, Walsh). To bolster their lineup, Cumberland was aggressive during the off-season as they held numerous draft picks and made a huge deal with Pembroke to pick up more offense in exchange for Drouin and Harper. The CIH Academy was the favourite source of Grads draftees starting with the 3rd overall pick Martin Lavallée and including Sean Naish and Devan Tremblay. In general, the early stages of the draft seemed to address more pressing concerns for the Grads.

The optimism also came from the high number of players from out of town who made the opening day roster from as far as Labrador (Lavallée) and Utah (David Higgs). This strategy brought the Grads into fairly new territory for a team that usually likes to pick its players from closer to home. When the puck dropped at the start of season showcase, the Grads turned some heads as they almost took the opening game from the Carleton Place Canadians in what would soon become a theme for the year – they end up on the losing side of a tight game.

Yet there were still pieces that needed to come together. Within a few weeks, Silas Neeposh had left the squad for the ‘Q’ leaving the defensive core without much experience. Chris King and Connor Currie had yet to arrive from the Pembroke trade. Injuries to Trevor Packard, Philippe Paquette and Justin Pelock slowed down the team that had rough spells throughout the fall.

However, recent weeks have showed big improvements for the Grads. For one thing, the team has been much better disciplined than last year. It has led to better use of powerplay time and less work shorthanded. A trade with Nepean before the trade freeze gave Andrew DeBrincat to the Grads and he now has 10 points, including three on the powerplay, since joining the team. Mark Golberg’s return from injury has allowed him to prosper and score a bunch of GWGs. That has, in turn, given more openings to the shifty Matt Allan. David Bennett, named with Golberg to the Central Canada Cup’s Prospect Game, has also showed that his physical dominance is accompanied by some offensive skills.

While the Grads weren’t great at the Holiday Showcase, they do finally have their best lineups put together. At the centre of it all are veterans Nick Martin and Eric Clitsome. Martin, who almost didn’t make it back for a final year, eclipsed his previous season point high back in October showing that his excellent penalty killing is only one facet of his game. He’s recently been named captain after Rodier went to Nepean. Clitsome, playing at point-a-game clip, deserves the type of respect that sees him at the Central Canada Cup and should land him a college ride. Finally, Travis Douglas deserves a mention for the progress he’s made – his three goal outburst against Kanata should become more regular in the next few months. With the pieces together, the Grads should see better results in the second half.

Three years after Iceland

Though this post is a few days late, it does indeed mark the third anniversary of my return from Iceland which I celebrated this week. Back in May 2009, I could not have predicted the way things would have turned out three years later and I think I would have thought that my present situation was, if not impossible, then perhaps just a little too well-wishing. I write from the third different room in the same house, but next year it will be different.


In fact, many things are different already. A few hours after writing last year’s post, I started dating a sweet lady by the name of Catie and a full year after that, we have now begun the process of moving in together in Orléans. Soon I’ll join her as I am moving out of my Velvet House at the end of July…again. The difference this time is that I’m not the only one, the whole organization is collapsing, moving in opposite directions.

The other difference, is that I’m no longer a student and don’t intend to be one in September for the first time in about 20 years. I just completed my MA in Political Science at Carleton University and am now set to work – and what chance, I was offered a job as Interim Manager of the Forum for Young Canadians, a program I care deeply about. All of those years of volunteering, trying to share the program with those who might appreciate it like I did, now see me on the other side, greeting volunteers who want to share it in their own ways.

I’ve gained a world of other experiences as well, since last April 29. That week I also began writing for the Orléans Star, where I met amazing people, interviewed spectacular athletes and humble volunteers and gained a better understanding of the community I’m beginning to call home again. It lead to writing for the Gloucester Rangers and colour commentating for the Cumberland Grads, opportunities I might never have imagined otherwise.

In a way, this year was also the freest year I’ve ever had. Knowing it was my last in school, I volunteered as much as possible, but also chose to follow my dream and visit the Albuquerque International Balloon Fiesta, which was everything I could ever have imagined. This year, I plan to go to the World Championship’s as part of Team Canada. Through the course of the past year, I’ve met so many great people and participated in so many great events through ballooning. Hal and Barb took me under their wing, or balloon rather, and let me travel with them to Cornwall, St-Jean, Battle Creek, Gatineau and Albuquerque. They never asked for thanks or wondered why I came. I owe them a great deal of gratitude and will be happy to share summer skies with them this year.

I saw a few friends from Iceland this year when I invited them to my house for our traditional New Year’s event. I’m even hoping of returning there a little bit in the fall. But time is passing and the distance between us is growing. Yet, I still feel the country’s odd magic and majesty and somehow hope that it can be reconnected, if only in a dream.